Speculations on the fate of Ukraine are in the news again.
The US has agreed on the partition of Ukraine in the second half of spring 2016. Andrey Knyazev, “News Front” agency’s political expert said that quite a reliable information was received from overseas about the preparation of “reformatting” of Ukraine, details of which are currently being discussed by Russia and the United States in regard to the Ukrainian crisis.
In the context of the impending economic collapse to leave the “customer” in its present status the big brothers are not planning. The fact that lately there is an active movement around Ukraine in general and the Donbas in particular – can be seen with the naked eye. Meetings, conversations, phone calls, talks of the Russian and American politicians are happening at the highest level.
In simple terms, Ukraine is prepared to be separated into spheres of influence with the formal preservation of statehood. The looming economic collapse which comes out from under the control of major players in the global economy and has already hit the US itself, is forcing to forget about Ukraine crisis in both, Moscow and Washington. The leading countries of the world do not have the resources for Ukraine, but to leave it in its present form they cannot.
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Knyazev said, the United States currently undertaking heated debates over the fate of Ukraine. “Hawks” demand the continuation of tough confrontation with Russia; “pigeons” want to reduce the degree of tension and de facto partition the country into spheres of influence.
However, to make sharp movements in Ukraine is very dangerous, because the weakened by “Maidan leaps” consciousness of a considerable part of the Ukrainian population can only cause unnecessary hysteria. It is believed that some mechanisms are already developed to carry out elections in the South-East, the Kiev out-of-control territories, which will bring to power authorities in these regions already recognized by the world. Who exactly of the current leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk peoples republics will remain in the cartridge clip, remains a matter of debate.
The rest of the territory of Ukraine will also undergo a “reformatting” with actual disintegration of the country into three parts. The division will create the Western Ukraine under of the protectorate of Poland, Romania and Hungary (sounds crazy, isn’t it?); Central Ukraine around Kiev, the future of which raises the highest number of questions (Knyazev assumes it will be the Nationalist government); and the Eastern Ukraine with the predominant influence of Russia.
Dates for the section of Ukraine – mid-spring or late summer 2016. A big controversy remains with Odessa, which still is a “sop in the pan” within US plans to build a naval NATO base over there. These judgments are bold enough for the moment, although the Ukraine as a whole is slowly but surely slipping into such a situation of this “reformatting”.
In that sense, there was another interesting prediction made by Italian geopolitics magazine Limes some time ago. According to magazine experts, it can occur as a result of geopolitical changes and the growing global financial crisis – the collapse of Ukraine into few parts. As a result, as the newspaper writes, at the site of the current Ukraine we may expect at least following three new formations: Eastern Ukraine (Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson region) which will become part of the Russian Federation, plus Crimea (already part of RF); Central Ukraine – (Chernihiv, Sumy, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Poltava, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Khmelnitsky and Chernivtsi regions) which will form part of a new “Russian Union”; Western Ukraine (Rivne, Lvov, Ternopol, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia) will adhere to a neutral status. Moreover, Volyn region, according to analysts, will depart to Belarus.
According to Limes, the resumption of Russian geopolitical ambitions is particularly a concern to the United States. Italian experts forecasting that in the near future in this process US administration will face two dangerous events, in particular, the growing interdependence between the Western and Eastern Europe, as well as the extension of Russian influence outside the former Soviet space – the Balkans, in the Mediterranean, Middle East, Latin America and Africa.
At the same time, Washington most of all is worried about a resurgence of the old axis Berlin – Moscow. As a bad news for America, magazine considers the birth of the “Gas OPEC”, which may accord countries with the largest reserves of natural gas – Russia, Iran and Qatar.
“Based on this position and the Russian leadership in the “Gas OPEC” alliance, Russians may develop a plan called “Project Russia”. It provides for the recovery of certain territories of the Russian Federation – Transnistria, South-Eastern Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Also, they may create a “Russian Union” – with Belarus, Central Ukraine, Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and a military alliance with Uzbekistan. Moscow is already in full control of their “war trophies” – South Ossetia and Abkhazia”, – says the Italian magazine.
To conclude and make all the predictions more unpredictable, let’s remember that if Donald Trump becomes president, his new foreign affairs doctrine will be in place which “replaces randomness with purpose, ideology with strategy, and chaos with peace … I believe an easing of tensions and improved relations with Russia – from a position of strength – is possible. Common sense says this cycle of hostility must end. Some say the Russians won’t be reasonable. I intend to find out.”
We likely won’t have to wait very long.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author and are not not necessarily either shared or endorsed by iPatriot.com.