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World Population Predictions per World Health Organization versus The Verhulst Equation

We know not when it began, but there has long been a “pan-science” popular with Ph.D.s in search of fame and wealth plus the blushing respect of 20 year drop-dead cute college coeds.

Increasing numbers of Professors find ways to announce, “We’re all gonna die!” blaming “fossil fuels,” “greenhouse gases” and “bovine flatulence.” None of these claimed threats is real and we have proved it in demonstration experiments for a decade only to be spat upon, threatened and castigated by believers.

I was recently invited by my old college to give a talk on educational technology. I accepted and returned my paper, “CO2 Is Innocent” seen at with a note saying, “This is what I would like to do as it is important.” Three weeks later a one page note informed me the invitation was withdrawn due to “scheduling problems.”

In addition to “Climate Change” the question of population growth has been one of the well-exploited tools of panic pushers. They say “a million species die every year,” and we are told it is our fault for using carbon based fuels. No studies proving that concept have been published and the work of George Woodwell, in the January 1978 issue of Scientific American, “The Carbon Question,” dash that idea.

In 1968 Dr. Paul Erlich published, “The Population Bomb,” saying in 20 years we would have too many people, run out of food and turn to cannibalism! Ironically, in that same decade the world growth trend peaked. What Dr. Erlich did not realize is that a man who had lived 200 years ago had found how populations really evolve and that we were behaving like all living things that have sexual reproduction. We come and we go. Every species is an experiment.

In the early 19th century a Belgian math and science teacher had the responsibility of caring for protista, one-celled animal, cultures. Pierre Antoine Verhhulst made the observation that no matter what he did starting with a few, they grew to thousands of tiny animals swimming in the culture, then peak, decline and die! He could take a few from a culture and start another and the same thing would happen every time!

He studied the phenomenon quantitatively by stirring the culture vigorously, taking a drop and counting the number of organisms in a single drop, 1/20 milliliter, and relating that to the full liter culture which was 20,000 times the volume of the drop. From this he derived a mathematical expression we will not outline here, but it is in Wikipedia and has been adapted to many disciplines ranging from nature studies to crowd dynamics, and battlefield simulations used by war Generals. One such application enabled General George S. Patten to estimate the ammunition reserves of Wehrmacht forces he was facing. Such is the art of war and the equation has been “rediscovered” by a dozen scientists and mathematicians with the most recent called “The Logistics Equation.”

In the chart above we see the perfect example of Nostrodomics panic predictions in the WHO projection of the human population from 1960 to 2250 showing we will have over 100 billion people on Earth unless the UN spends a lot of American money for condoms, IUDs, birth control pills, vasectomies, payoffs to despots and gifts to the Clinton Foundation to prevent our collapse to cannibalism!

Meanwhile back at the data, in the right side we see that the population began a decline in the 60’s that was only interrupted by growth in 2010 during the Obama term when the country was in great stress and as in war, the birth rate rises. It is back on track now and expected to continue a decline and with some intelligent direction we can reach an equilibrium point which will almost certainly require we kill all Ph.D. Nostrodomics.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author and are not not necessarily either shared or endorsed by

Adrian Vance

Trained as a science teacher, with eight years classroom experience, he has been writing professionally since the age of 15. He was the youngest person to be published in Journal of the Illinois Academy of Science at 17 as a result of a paper he wrote suggesting a revision in the science teaching curriculum. Publication was accidental as his teacher headed the selection committee and his paper was sent to the printer in error. Nonetheless, it received positive response. It proposed teaching General Science, then Physics followed by Chemistry with Biology in the senior year given the then new molecular focus in Biology. During his college years he worked on the school newspaper, primarily as a photographer and did an occasional feature, some of which caused him to be called to the Dean's office. "You don't like the way we do things here?" was the usual opening remark followed by the expected suggestion. After his third year, exhausted and without direction, he left for one year, but returned, when Sputnik and Admiral Rickover's books documented a crisis in American education. He felt called to teach and completed a B.S. in Physical Science at Illinois State University with a major in chemistry, minor in biology, near minors physics and education. He did graduate work in both Illinois and California completing a California Life Diploma teaching credential in 1962. While teaching he saw many needs and opportunities in educational publishing so he wrote and produced educational materials, primarily filmstrips and sound recordings. He also wrote for photographic magazines as film work put him in touch with many photographic and production problems. He has 325 screen credits in educational, industrial film and filmstrip as a writer-producer. In 1976 he won the Learning Magazine “Best of the Year” award for his “You in the Universe” filmstrip series and the New York Film and Television Festival Silver Medal for “An Introduction to Cells” filmstrip series. For a partial database of Adrian’s publications please click on and you will see them listed by series title and publisher. Each series title included four to 30 filmstrips and all are not fully listed in this database. The grand total is over 800. Over that 30 years Mr. Vance also wrote other material: two books, published in New York: “UFO’s: The Eye and the Camera” for Barlenmir House and “Audiovisual Production” for Amphoto Books. He wrote and illustrated over 100 features and columns for photography magazines. He was a Founding Contributing Editor for Peterson's PhotoGraphic Magazine and the West Coast Editor of Popular Photography from 1974 to 1978, writing a monthly column for the magazine. As a result of underwater photography work he contributed to SKIN DIVER magazine in the 70's. His "Timing Waves to Enter The Sea" article, first appearing in SKIN DIVER, is now a chapter in a classified U.S. Navy Seals training manual. "UFO's, The Eye and the Camera" documents his "Two channel information theory for the analysis of events simultaneously seen and photographed." It is the first comparative analysis of vision and photography written with the idea of combining information from both sources into a single analysis that can be used scientifically and forensically. Mr. Vance is also credited with solving the mystery of how complete maps of Earth were drawn in antiquity and he rediscovered Captain Cook's secret method of locating Pacific islands so well their positions have only recently been improved. He is cited with discovering the method in the seventh edition of "The Maps of the Ancient Sea Kings," by Dr. Charles Hapgood and he later contributed to a definitive article on cartography in antiquity for The Smithsonian Magazine as they confirmed his method. On February 19, 1976 Mr. Vance got a “Certificate of Appreciation” award from the Los Angeles Police Department “in grateful recognition of his generosity in make available to officers of this Department the talents and training of his German Shepherd, Boris. The ready willingness of Mr. Adrian Vance to become involved and to make available his valuable dog in a potentially hazardous situation deserves the gratitude and approbation of the entire Los Angeles Police Department.” This incident was critical to the LAPD administration’s realization that trained dogs could be of value in police work and they are now employed by the LAPD. When the computer replaced film the school market audio-visual field he switched horses at full gallop and produced 460 computer educational disk systems for the Apple II computer over 15 years. During that time he became a professional broadcaster in the 90's to promote the State Water bond issue in Santa Barbara, California as he felt it was critical for the town. He was publicly credited for having been one of the top ten reasons the measure passed thanks to his book “Drought in Paradise” and radio work. The collapse of his software business when Apple Computer discontinued the "II" machine line in 1995 crystallized the failure of his second marriage. With no clear direction in the school market supplemental materials field he sought a career in broadcasting in Las Vegas, Nevada doing shows on both KDWN and KXNT. This was unsatisfying due to the "star" economics of commercial radio where a few performers make millions and everyone else starves. Mr. Vance has also been a day trader, strategist, system developer and author on the equities markets and trading. He now trades stock, land and develops residential property. His website and trading information service, "The Stock Surfer" was a leading Internet service for seven years. He has been developing “The Young Americans” series of Young Adult novels promoting conservative values as well as his personal memoir, “A Long Way From Normal.” You can buy Adrian Vance’ books or downloads at December 21, 2010 he was awarded US. Patent 7,855,061 for his “Fuel Farm” that makes a gasoline equivalent 100 Octane fuel, butanol, from CO2, water and sunlight with algae and bacteria. You can see the full disclosure websites regarding his inventions at: and -30-


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