A Simple Election Lesson

I feel for you, oh gentle voter, especially those in the #NeverTrump camp. You have been barraged with taunts and insults by the Trumpazoids. They all make it come down to one thing: A vote against Trump is a vote for Hillary. But is it really? Would not voting for Trump be a vote for Hillary? Actually, it just might not be!

Let’s take a look at a totally unrealistic scenario. Let’s say that of all the registered voters in the US except 4, two Democrats and 2 Republicans, decide to stay at home on Election Day and Netflix binge. Now both Republicans vote for Trump and both Democrats vote for Hillary, tossing the election to the House of Representatives which, in a drug induced state, decide to elect Tony Soprano for President. But what if a Republican voter decided to vote for Hillary instead? End result, Hillary wins the election three-to-one and we are all forced to wear hideously colored pants-suits. Now what if that same Republican decided to vote for a third party candidate? Now Hillary only wins 2-1, by one vote and we still end up wearing ridiculously colored pants-suits only we don’t feel so bad.

But we are not talking about four votes, my dear voters. According to estimates there are approximately 142 million registered votes in the US. Those 142 million break down, according to Gallup, to 27%, or 38,340,000 Republican and 30%, or 42,600,000 Democrats. We won’t talk about the 41 % that are independents because no one likes independents. They are the people who get in front of you at a McDonald’s drive thru and take all day trying to decide whether they want the Quarter Pounder meal or the Big Mac meal and what size they want their drinks causing you so much frustration that you pick up their Prius and flip it over, forcing them to order upside down. I’m still paying the legal bills on that one! No, we will confine ourselves to the true Republicans and Democrats.

Looking at the numbers we can see that Trump is already behind by 3%. Now lets say that another 1%, or 3,834,000 of #NeverTrumpers decide to rebel against the RNC and vote for Hillary. Well, now she wins by what could be called a landslide, 31% to 26% or 5% points. But what if the #NeverTrumpers decide to vote for a third party candidate, such as the Libertarian party or the Green Party? She still wins, but at a lower rate, 30%-26%, not exactly a landslide vote.

As it sits right now, Hillary is destroying Trump in all the polls anywhere for 4%-11%, depending on the poll. The 4% of the spectrum fits in nicely with the Gallup Poll as far as the spread between Democrats and Republicans is concerned. If Trump loses, it will not be because of the defection of the #NeverTrumpers, it will be because he could not or would not work to keep them in the Republican base. Therefore, his loss will not be your fault, gentle voter, but his to bear.