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The End of the Human Race?

This Excel spreadsheet is a comparison of the predictions of the United Nation’s World Health Organization, WHO, and the Verhulst, or Logistics equation.

Antoine Verhulst was an 18th century science teacher who observed paramecia cultures increased population to a peak, then declined to zero. He could not maintain a constant culture. He tracked them by stirring vigorously, taking a sample and counting those one drop, extrapolated to find the population. From this data he derived an equation predicting the life of a culture. With this he accurately predicted the population of the Dutch population in 1995 from 1780! His equation has been applied to other species and predicted the rise and fall accurately, but we have not seen an application to the human race. Perhaps it is not interesting politically.

world-population

Meanwhile back at the United Nations WHO they claim the human race will expand apace so we ran their projection in the second column, “per WHO” while we ran a Verhulst prediction in column five, “per Verhust”

Nothing sells better than dystopian books and films presenting the end of the world or the end of the human race at the hands of space people, plague, CO2, ozone depletion, starvation or Donald Trump, if you live in New York, Massachusetts or California.

Meanwhile, at the National Vital Statistics System, Mortality there has been a recent release that has many people concerned: “Life expectancy for the U.S. population in 2015 was 78.8 years, a decrease of 0.1 year from 2014.

The age-adjusted death rate increased 1.2% from 724.6 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2014 to 733.1 in 2015.

The 10 leading causes of death in 2015 remained the same as in 2014. Age-adjusted death rates increased for eight leading causes and decreased for one.

The infant mortality rate of 589.5 infant deaths per 100,000 live births in 2015 was not significantly different from the 2014 rate.

The 10 leading causes of infant death in 2015 remained the same as in 2014, although two causes exchanged ranks. This report presents 2015 U.S. final mortality data on deaths and death rates by demographic and medical characteristics. These data provide information on mortality patterns among U.S. residents by variables such as sex, race and ethnicity, and cause of death. Life expectancy estimates, age-adjusted death rates by race and ethnicity and sex, 10 leading causes of death, and 10 leading causes of infant death were analyzed by comparing 2015 and 2014 final data.”

Meanwhile back at the spreadsheet: Notice at the top of column three, the progressions, labeled “Progress.”, increase from 1960 to 1970, which could be an error, but decline from that point on, per the Verhulst Principle. There is a bump up in 2010, but otherwise the trend is consistently down. We approximate the rate to go forward all the way to 2250. What does it all mean?

We trust Verhulst and the adaptability of man far more than the Paul Erclich generation of alarmist fear-mongers. The rate of population decline is now well under way in Japan, Europe and the middle class of America. We feel it is possible man will realize an equilibrium population point when science and technology are put to good use by our people. The real challenge of the future will be what to do with our abundance?

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author and are not not necessarily either shared or endorsed by iPatriot.com.

Adrian Vance

Trained as a science teacher, with eight years classroom experience, he has been writing professionally since the age of 15. He was the youngest person to be published in Journal of the Illinois Academy of Science at 17 as a result of a paper he wrote suggesting a revision in the science teaching curriculum. Publication was accidental as his teacher headed the selection committee and his paper was sent to the printer in error. Nonetheless, it received positive response. It proposed teaching General Science, then Physics followed by Chemistry with Biology in the senior year given the then new molecular focus in Biology. During his college years he worked on the school newspaper, primarily as a photographer and did an occasional feature, some of which caused him to be called to the Dean's office. "You don't like the way we do things here?" was the usual opening remark followed by the expected suggestion. After his third year, exhausted and without direction, he left for one year, but returned, when Sputnik and Admiral Rickover's books documented a crisis in American education. He felt called to teach and completed a B.S. in Physical Science at Illinois State University with a major in chemistry, minor in biology, near minors physics and education. He did graduate work in both Illinois and California completing a California Life Diploma teaching credential in 1962. While teaching he saw many needs and opportunities in educational publishing so he wrote and produced educational materials, primarily filmstrips and sound recordings. He also wrote for photographic magazines as film work put him in touch with many photographic and production problems. He has 325 screen credits in educational, industrial film and filmstrip as a writer-producer. In 1976 he won the Learning Magazine “Best of the Year” award for his “You in the Universe” filmstrip series and the New York Film and Television Festival Silver Medal for “An Introduction to Cells” filmstrip series. For a partial database of Adrian’s publications please click on http://www.worldcat.org/search and you will see them listed by series title and publisher. Each series title included four to 30 filmstrips and all are not fully listed in this database. The grand total is over 800. Over that 30 years Mr. Vance also wrote other material: two books, published in New York: “UFO’s: The Eye and the Camera” for Barlenmir House and “Audiovisual Production” for Amphoto Books. He wrote and illustrated over 100 features and columns for photography magazines. He was a Founding Contributing Editor for Peterson's PhotoGraphic Magazine and the West Coast Editor of Popular Photography from 1974 to 1978, writing a monthly column for the magazine. As a result of underwater photography work he contributed to SKIN DIVER magazine in the 70's. His "Timing Waves to Enter The Sea" article, first appearing in SKIN DIVER, is now a chapter in a classified U.S. Navy Seals training manual. "UFO's, The Eye and the Camera" documents his "Two channel information theory for the analysis of events simultaneously seen and photographed." It is the first comparative analysis of vision and photography written with the idea of combining information from both sources into a single analysis that can be used scientifically and forensically. Mr. Vance is also credited with solving the mystery of how complete maps of Earth were drawn in antiquity and he rediscovered Captain Cook's secret method of locating Pacific islands so well their positions have only recently been improved. He is cited with discovering the method in the seventh edition of "The Maps of the Ancient Sea Kings," by Dr. Charles Hapgood and he later contributed to a definitive article on cartography in antiquity for The Smithsonian Magazine as they confirmed his method. On February 19, 1976 Mr. Vance got a “Certificate of Appreciation” award from the Los Angeles Police Department “in grateful recognition of his generosity in make available to officers of this Department the talents and training of his German Shepherd, Boris. The ready willingness of Mr. Adrian Vance to become involved and to make available his valuable dog in a potentially hazardous situation deserves the gratitude and approbation of the entire Los Angeles Police Department.” This incident was critical to the LAPD administration’s realization that trained dogs could be of value in police work and they are now employed by the LAPD. When the computer replaced film the school market audio-visual field he switched horses at full gallop and produced 460 computer educational disk systems for the Apple II computer over 15 years. During that time he became a professional broadcaster in the 90's to promote the State Water bond issue in Santa Barbara, California as he felt it was critical for the town. He was publicly credited for having been one of the top ten reasons the measure passed thanks to his book “Drought in Paradise” and radio work. The collapse of his software business when Apple Computer discontinued the "II" machine line in 1995 crystallized the failure of his second marriage. With no clear direction in the school market supplemental materials field he sought a career in broadcasting in Las Vegas, Nevada doing shows on both KDWN and KXNT. This was unsatisfying due to the "star" economics of commercial radio where a few performers make millions and everyone else starves. Mr. Vance has also been a day trader, strategist, system developer and author on the equities markets and trading. He now trades stock, land and develops residential property. His website and trading information service, "The Stock Surfer" was a leading Internet service for seven years. He has been developing “The Young Americans” series of Young Adult novels promoting conservative values as well as his personal memoir, “A Long Way From Normal.” You can buy Adrian Vance’ books or downloads at Amazon.com December 21, 2010 he was awarded US. Patent 7,855,061 for his “Fuel Farm” that makes a gasoline equivalent 100 Octane fuel, butanol, from CO2, water and sunlight with algae and bacteria. You can see the full disclosure websites regarding his inventions at: http://CO2Au.blogspot.com and http://fuelfarm.i8.com -30-

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